When trees grow out of stone
When trees grow out of stone
On Monday, Labor Day, I had that sinking Sunday feeling—facing the end of summer and the end of my summer PTO on the same day. My kids are starting another year of school tomorrow and all this time we thought we had has slipped away. But really I’m sad because we made the most of it and now it’s over. While on vacation, I showed my kids around a place I lived well before they came along, visited an old friend who now calls Spain her home, and enjoyed time on a beach.
While with my friend, I noticed where she lives is practically made of stone and rock. Yet from the beach, I could see trees that found a way to grow straight out of the stone. Perhaps it was the salt air, but the prospect that trees could grow out of those conditions was as good as listening to a motivational speaker.
Of course I did watch the markets and world events while I was away. All the data is trending as we expected—inflation falling and growth still there. Of course earnings were good for those that had low expectations (e.g., like TGT and BBY reporting last week) and disappointing for those that had high expectations (e.g., like ANF and NVDA reporting last week).
Now that it’s September, I’m anxious. We’ve had a good market run, election season will kick into high gear (a perfect opportunity for volatility to rise as it has historically), and the Fed is now very widely expected to start cutting rates in a couple weeks (September 18)—while valuations are again not leaving a lot of room for error. I can’t help but worry something is brewing that I don’t know about yet.
However, I still think we will end the year higher, like I shared in my mid-year outlook. But there are several reasons to think it won’t be this month. But it could just be my anxiety talking. Time to look at that picture I took of those aforementioned trees again.
This week, all eyes on jobs data (Wednesday’s JOLTs data and Friday’s employment report for August). We want softer data to support the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates, but not so soft that it shows they might already be late to start cutting. I think we’ll get the former. But I’m still watching closely.
The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and is not an individualized recommendation of any security, digital asset, or investment strategy. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements or opinions provided herein will prove to be correct.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk including loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss.
Information shown is as of a certain date and represents a point in time. Data will generally not be updated after publishing. Data is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Robinhood does not provide tax advice. For specific questions, you should consult a tax professional.